Well, the time has come. It was a long and quite tedious season all around (probably because of the long time between the nominations and the ceremony), with hypocritical pundits outdoing themselves (seriously, I wished we could get the Sain Viola days back) and of course, Ben Affleck's pissy diva behavior was the most annoying thing and the Greek tragedy around his "snub". I mean, he already has one undeserved Oscar, why three? However, 2012 was a relatively strong year (but probably not as much as people say). Anyway, I'm glad we've got to this point.
Best Picture
Will win: Argo
Should win: Silver Linings Playbook
I'll keep rooting for Silver Linings Playbook in basically every category it's nominated in, because for me, it was one of the most beautiful, wonderful movies recently. It can be because of my personal reasons, but I still find it the best. But that doesn't change the fact that Argo will take the award home, which is a shame, really, despite the fact that it's a well-made piece with good atmosphere. ArgoFuckYourself.
Best Director
Will win: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Should win: Michael Haneke for Amour
Haneke should take this in a walk, but unfortunately, his chances of winning are quite slim. That being said, with Ben Affleck out, everybody has a shot at an upset (save for, maybe Benh Zeitlin). Between Spielberg and Lee, I'd probably pick Spielberg because he was able to trim the potential sentimentality of Lincoln, creating an often fascinating motion picture. That being said, if Bigelow had been nominated, this would be a perfect line-up and she would be a no-brainer pick. For some reasons, I somehow believe that Spielberg will take home this award as a compensation for the Lincoln shutout that's about to come.
Best Actress
Will win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook or Emmanuelle Riva for Amour (I don't dare to pick now out of superstition)
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
What else do you want? :) Scroll down to my thoughts.
Best Actor
Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
This year is not even close for me, Phoenix and Cooper are so much better than the other nominees. I picked Phoenix by a hair, but I'd so love to see a Cooper upset. DDL will get another Oscar I'll be baffled by - seriously, I don't see how other people don't mind that there is no soul in his performances. Everybody is so obsessed with external things. It's not that he's great, but I rarely connect to him (his early performances are way better than the post-Gangs of New York ones). The one I'm truly baffled by, though, is Denzel whose performance is just way behind.
Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
Should win: Sally Field in Lincoln
Hathaway seems to be the only completely safe bet (beside DDL) and in my opinion, undeservedly so (I know, I know). I'm not going to get into why I don't like this performance, I'd rather go and praise Sally Field's incredible performance as Mary Todd Lincoln, which, for me, is essential to the development of Lincoln and Sally's no-holds-bars acting is just perfect for this character. Amazing. The other nominees... not sure about them, but they all offer something special (especially Hunt's beautiful, subtle work in The Sessions, but I'm not sure if she's in the right category).
Best Supporting Actor
Will win: Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln (not sure; it could just as well be Waltz or De Niro)
Should win: Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook
Since the category is Best SUPPORTING Actor, I'm saying De Niro should win his third Oscar even though both Hoffman and Waltz gave superior performances (Hoffman gave the best performance of the five, IMO, but his fraud is the ugliest). Considering them in this category is more than unjust (especially that Waltz's spot took the place of DiCaprio and Jackson who could have won long overdue Oscars). Anyway, a strong category, with Arkin being the weakest link (but I enjoyed his work a lot as well).
Best Original Screenplay
Will win: Django Unchained
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom
I'm elated that Moonrise Kingdom was recognised here, because it's the most special screenplay for me this year, because of the beautiful, poetic and tender story of growing up. It's just amazing. Amour is closely behind though the screenplay is one of the least important parts. Either Haneke or Tarantino will win an Oscar in a make-up for not winning Director. I'm going with Tarantino because it's more of a film that wins a Screenplay award than Amour (if you know what I mean). Although it's a strong line-up, I have no idea what Flight's average screenplay does there.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will win: Argo
Should win: Silver Linings Playbook
Although Tony Kushner wrote a very admirable 1,131,141-page-long screenplay, for me Silver Linings is the easiest choice of all the categories for its realistic, bittersweet portrayal of a tough subject, fantastic dialogue and ironic way of thinkin. That being said, Argo will win this one, which is a shame, really, because it's probably my 4th in this line-up and it's way behind SLP, Lincoln and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Best Cinematography
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Skyfall
What a category! Basically everybody deserves to take home the Oscar, except for Robert Richardson who's doing one of his two types of cinematography (one for Scorsese, one for Tarantino). Still, Skyfall is the real standout for me and not because I feel Deakins should win. He actually always deserves to win, but what he did with Skyfall and the whole Bond series visually was just fantastic: it mixes its classic atmosphere with this modern, stunning digital visuality (that fight scene in the blue light, my goodness). But I guess this crazy obsession with 3D will help Life of Pi's case.
Best Score
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty Anna Karenina
Another terrific category, despite the fact that the two greatest scores this year were not nominated (Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom, both by Desplat). I have to go with Anna Karenina here and for very subjective reasons. I'm just dying for strings and the way Marianelli's music sounds from the violins and chellos. I'm dying. The close runner-up (for the same reasons) is the often bashed score of Argo, which is vivid, colorful, tense and uplifting. But I'm also fine with Danna winning for Life of Pi.
Best Editing
Will win: Argo
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
William Goldenberg deserves the Oscar... for Zero Dark Thirty. Seriously, that movie is brilliantly paced and the editing has such a large part in keeping it as intense and suspenseful as it really is. Strongly behind is Silver Linings Playbook, for the magnificent manic feeling it adds to the film.
Best Production Design
Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Anna Karenina
Honestly, Anna Karenina not winning for this would be a crime. The sets had such an integral part in creating the magical atmosphere of this underrated movie and I basically couldn't close my mouth while looking at them. Closely behind is Lincoln for fabulously representing the whole tone of Lincoln in the sets. The weakests link for me are Les Miserables, which failed to impress me with those stagey elements (it worked with Anna Karenina more) and Life of Pi, which I fear is winning because The Academy tends to confuse Art Direction with Visual Effects.
Best Costume Design
Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Mirror Mirror
Another very strong category, where in my opinion, the late Eiko Ishioka's work in Mirror Mirror should easily triumph. Close behind is Anna Karenina for me, which will be perfectly deserving of the Oscar it'll win, in my opinion.
Best Original Song
Will win: Skyfall
Should win: Adele for Skyfall
Adele is so close to winning that damn Oscar, the Academy had better not screw this up. Seriously, this really was the song of the year and was a perfect-perfect choice for a 007 movie (that intro, my goodness).
Best Make-up and Hairstyling
Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Les Miserables
For some reason, I have to go with Les Miserables here, because some of those creations in The Hobbit seemed so obvious and fake for me and Hopkins' make-up is so terrible in Hitchcock (it's more Albert Nobbs than The Iron Lady, to put it nicely). Les Miserables, however, is perfect this way and is an easy choice for me.
Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Skyfall
Best Sound Editing
Will win: Life of Pi (I don't really buy Argo winning this, it's either both Sound categories or neither)
Should win: Life of Pi
To see the rest of my predictions, watch my goldderby profile! :) I might change some of my predictions so you'll see the changes there.
Anyway, I'm excited for the show because Seth MacFarlane is hosting (I'm a fan of Family Guy) and of course, especially since Jane Fonda is presenting!!! :) The winners might be shitty but Jane will be there and that's the most important.
Are you all ready?