Sunday, February 24, 2013


Well, the time has come. It was a long and quite tedious season all around (probably because of the long time between the nominations and the ceremony), with hypocritical pundits outdoing themselves (seriously, I wished we could get the Sain Viola days back) and of course, Ben Affleck's pissy diva behavior was the most annoying thing and the Greek tragedy around his "snub". I mean, he already has one undeserved Oscar, why three? However, 2012 was a relatively strong year (but probably not as much as people say). Anyway, I'm glad we've got to this point.

Best Picture

Will win: Argo
Should win: Silver Linings Playbook

I'll keep rooting for Silver Linings Playbook in basically every category it's nominated in, because for me, it was one of the most beautiful, wonderful movies recently. It can be because of my personal reasons, but I still find it the best. But that doesn't change the fact that Argo will take the award home, which is a shame, really, despite the fact that it's a well-made piece with good atmosphere. ArgoFuckYourself.

Best Director

Will win: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Should win: Michael Haneke for Amour

Haneke should take this in a walk, but unfortunately, his chances of winning are quite slim. That being said, with Ben Affleck out, everybody has a shot at an upset (save for, maybe Benh Zeitlin). Between Spielberg and Lee, I'd probably pick Spielberg because he was able to trim the potential sentimentality of Lincoln, creating an often fascinating motion picture. That being said, if Bigelow had been nominated, this would be a perfect line-up and she would be a no-brainer pick. For some reasons, I somehow believe that Spielberg will take home this award as a compensation for the Lincoln shutout that's about to come.

Best Actress

Will win: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook or Emmanuelle Riva for Amour (I don't dare to pick now out of superstition)
Should win: Emmanuelle Riva for Amour

What else do you want? :) Scroll down to my thoughts. 

Best Actor

Will win: Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln
Should win: Joaquin Phoenix in The Master
This year is not even close for me, Phoenix and Cooper are so much better than the other nominees. I picked Phoenix by a hair, but I'd so love to see a Cooper upset.  DDL will get another Oscar I'll be baffled by - seriously, I don't see how other people don't mind that there is no soul in his performances. Everybody is so obsessed with external things. It's not that he's great, but I rarely connect to him (his early performances are way better than the post-Gangs of New York ones). The one I'm truly baffled by, though, is Denzel whose performance is just way behind.

Best Supporting Actress

Will win: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables
Should win: Sally Field in Lincoln

Hathaway seems to be the only completely safe bet (beside DDL) and in my opinion, undeservedly so (I know, I know). I'm not going to get into why I don't like this performance, I'd rather go and praise Sally Field's incredible performance as Mary Todd Lincoln, which, for me, is essential to the development of Lincoln and Sally's no-holds-bars acting is just perfect for this character. Amazing. The other nominees... not sure about them, but they all offer something special (especially Hunt's beautiful, subtle work in The Sessions, but I'm not sure if she's in the right category).

Best Supporting Actor

Will win: Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln (not sure; it could just as well be Waltz or De Niro)
Should win: Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook

Since the category is Best SUPPORTING Actor, I'm saying De Niro should win his third Oscar even though both Hoffman and Waltz gave superior performances (Hoffman gave the best performance of the five, IMO, but his fraud is the ugliest). Considering them in this category is more than unjust (especially that Waltz's spot took the place of DiCaprio and Jackson who could have won long overdue Oscars). Anyway, a strong category, with Arkin being the weakest link (but I enjoyed his work a lot as well).

Best Original Screenplay

Will win: Django Unchained
Should win: Moonrise Kingdom

I'm elated that Moonrise Kingdom was recognised here, because it's the most special screenplay for me this year, because of the beautiful, poetic and tender story of growing up. It's just amazing. Amour is closely behind though the screenplay is one of the least important parts. Either Haneke or Tarantino will win an Oscar in a make-up for not winning Director. I'm going with Tarantino because it's more of a film that wins a Screenplay award than Amour (if you know what I mean). Although it's a strong line-up, I have no idea what Flight's average screenplay does there.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will win: Argo
Should win: Silver Linings Playbook

Although Tony Kushner wrote a very admirable 1,131,141-page-long screenplay, for me Silver Linings is the easiest choice of all the categories for its realistic, bittersweet portrayal of a tough subject, fantastic dialogue and ironic way of thinkin. That being said, Argo will win this one, which is a shame, really, because it's probably my 4th in this line-up and it's way behind SLP, Lincoln and Beasts of the Southern Wild.

Best Cinematography

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Skyfall

What a category! Basically everybody deserves to take home the Oscar, except for Robert Richardson who's doing one of his two types of cinematography (one for Scorsese, one for Tarantino). Still, Skyfall is the real standout for me and not because I feel Deakins should win. He actually always deserves to win, but what he did with Skyfall and the whole Bond series visually was just fantastic: it mixes its classic atmosphere with this modern, stunning digital visuality (that fight scene in the blue light, my goodness). But I guess this crazy obsession with 3D will help Life of Pi's case.

Best Score 

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty Anna Karenina

Another terrific category, despite the fact that the two greatest scores this year were not nominated (Zero Dark Thirty and Moonrise Kingdom, both by Desplat). I have to go with Anna Karenina here  and for very subjective reasons. I'm just dying for strings and the way Marianelli's music sounds from the violins and chellos. I'm dying. The close runner-up (for the same reasons) is the often bashed score of Argo, which is vivid, colorful, tense and uplifting. But I'm also fine with Danna winning for Life of Pi. 

Best Editing

Will win: Argo
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty

William Goldenberg deserves the Oscar... for Zero Dark Thirty. Seriously, that movie is brilliantly paced and the editing has such a large part in keeping it as intense and suspenseful as it really is. Strongly behind is Silver Linings Playbook, for the magnificent manic feeling it adds to the film.

Best Production Design

Will win: Life of Pi
Should win: Anna Karenina

Honestly, Anna Karenina not winning for this would be a crime. The sets had such an integral part in creating the magical atmosphere of this underrated movie and I basically couldn't close my mouth while looking at them. Closely behind is Lincoln for fabulously representing the whole tone of Lincoln in the sets. The weakests link for me are Les Miserables, which failed to impress me with those stagey elements (it worked with Anna Karenina more) and Life of Pi, which I fear is winning because The Academy tends to confuse Art Direction with Visual Effects.

Best Costume Design

Will win: Anna Karenina
Should win: Mirror Mirror

Another very strong category, where in my opinion, the late Eiko Ishioka's work in Mirror Mirror should easily triumph. Close behind is Anna Karenina for me, which will be perfectly deserving of the Oscar it'll win, in my opinion.

Best Original Song

Will win: Skyfall
Should win: Adele for Skyfall

Adele is so close to winning that damn Oscar, the Academy had better not screw this up. Seriously, this really was the song of the year and was a perfect-perfect choice for a 007 movie (that intro, my goodness). 

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Les Miserables

For some reason, I have to go with Les Miserables here, because some of those creations in The Hobbit seemed so obvious and fake for me and Hopkins' make-up is so terrible in Hitchcock (it's more Albert Nobbs than The Iron Lady, to put it nicely). Les Miserables, however, is perfect this way and is an easy choice for me. 

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: Les Miserables
Should win: Skyfall

Best Sound Editing

Will win: Life of Pi (I don't really buy Argo winning this, it's either both Sound categories or neither)
Should win: Life of Pi

To see the rest of my predictions, watch my goldderby profile! :) I might change some of my predictions so you'll see the changes there.

Anyway, I'm excited for the show because Seth MacFarlane is hosting (I'm a fan of Family Guy) and of course, especially since Jane Fonda is presenting!!! :) The winners might be shitty but Jane will be there and that's the most important.

Are you all ready?


mrripley said...

I completely agree on sally,i don't know what anne was doing in les mis but it left me so cold,ddl doe not need a 3rd,cooper and phoenix had less to work with and gave way way more then they needed too,i think denzel i solid but wish hawkes was there,i adored hunt and wish she could be my winner but field tops her,lawrence i was floored by,de niro or hoffman were the best is support did not like the other 3.

mrripley said...

i am surprised no one liked mirren in hitchcock,thought she was fab.

Louis Morgan said...

Picture: Argo will obviously win, even though Zero Dark Thirty should win. Although really I liked Argo too so I am fine with that, in fact the only best picture nominee I did not like all that much was Beasts but I still thought it was okay.

Director: Well Bigelow would be the obvious choice if she was nominated, but I guess I would give it to Spielberg who tones down his sentimentality here. All the directors did fine work here though, and Affleck did not need to be nominated. This one will be interesting to watch as I have no idea will win but I suppose I would guess Spielberg.

Actress: Lawrence will win I think since it did have four acting nominations. After all Bafta did not nominate De Niro so their support was not as overwhelming. Riva could upset, and I would prefer that but I would not bet on it either.

Actor: I could not disagree with you more when it comes to Day-Lewis this is the most soulful performance he ever gave and his whole performance is about the warmth of Lincoln. I'm glad he is breaking the tie since he was tied for winning for the best performances with Marlon Brando anyway. Most in the tie did not deserve to win one of their Oscars, and in some cases both. Also Phoenix would be an amazing winner, but that is not going to happen.

Supporting Actress: Hathaway will win and I am just fine with that as she did exactly what she needed to do in her part. I liked Field but I do feel she kept her eyebrow a little to furrowed. Hunt is leading (as she has scenes solely dedicated to her character), but that does not bother me so much as she did not do all that much. Adams was good but easily forgotten in light of her male co-stars. Weaver is almost background atmosphere.

Supporting Actor: Again I have to disagree with you in that Hoffman and Waltz are too far above the other in my opinion for me to care about category fraud. If Javier Bardem was there, a truly supporting performance, than I would say he was more deserving than Hoffman of the supporting win, but as it is Hoffman or Waltz should win. I think Jones will win, but hopefully Waltz will pull the upset that seems possible.

Nic said...

I might actually change the channel during Hathaway's speech cause I just simply can't with her oh-I'm-so-surprised routine. And they better add the E behind the Ann too on her oscar

I like DDL but Joaquin Phoenix is overdue in my opinion.

Zero Dark Thirty is my pick for best picture (not gonna happen). I liked Argo but it lacked the soul and emotional depth of the other films. I wouldn't mind Silver Linings Playbook securing a win too, even though it would just be fulfilling Harvey Weinstein's consecutive triple win dream(Urgh!)

Haneke is good but it's quite unlikely that he's going to win, sadly. I loved The White Ribbon. I wish this kind of quietly intense directing style would be recognized more by the academy

And you are damn right about this awards season being extremely tedious. If you noticed, Anne has been campaigning even before her frigging movie came out and that was actually in DECEMBER.

I feel sad for saying this cause I used to really like her but her bizarre behavior just left me cold...

Anonymous said...

I agree 100 % with you on Daniel Day-Lewis. And I'm so glad someone feels the same way about him. I would love to see Cooper win.
On the actresses I'd actually like to see Jessica Chastain to win. I loved Jennifer Lawrence too.
I also disagree with you. I think it would be a disaster if Anne Hathaway wouldn't win for Les Miserables. She's a brilliant actress who has this luminous presence that for example Day-Lewis misses.
I'm also quite disappointed to the best supporting actor category. All previous winners. Leo should have won for Django Unchained.

Anonymous said...

Silver Linings Playbook is probably my personal favorite for Best Picture too. It's such a delightful movie.

I'll have to disagree with you on Actor. I love DDL's performance in Lincoln, and I do think it's the actual best in the category - but Cooper really comes second. He was unexpectedly great!

On Best Actress I couldn't agree with you more.

Best Supporting Actor... well, Waltz was my favorite performance, followed by Hoffman. I'd just love to see De Niro get his third though, he deserves it.

And with Best Supporting Actress I think Hunt was definitely my favorite. It's a brave but somehow subtle performance... and Adams would come second. She has barely any screentime but she nails every single scene.

Nues20 said...

Wish the winners were a bit more like your picks in the end :)

Anonymous said...

So basically, you want all the pretentious choices to win, rather than the best.